According to the latest data released by the CNB, in September recorded a deterioration of movement of all three composite indices: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), consumer sentiment index (CSI) and the index of consumer expectations (IOP). The results of a monthly survey conducted in September showed deterioration in the perception of consumers regarding changes in the financial situation of households and the overall economic situation in Croatia.
So in September Consumer Confidence Index recorded a level of -34.8 which is on the scale of the index value for one place lower than in the previous month. Also, the index of consumer expectations dropped to the -22.0 cent in August to -22.5 in September. The greatest deterioration showed consumer sentiment index, which dropped by 1.8 points (from 40.3 in August to -42.1 in September).
Also, compared to the same month last year, all three indices show a decline: IPP is lower by 1.4 points, IOP was lower by 2.1 points, while the IRP down by 1.2 points compared to September 2013.
Given that the consumer sentiment index shows the results of the survey at three levels (the financial situation of households and assessment of the overall economic situation in Croatia in the last 12 months, and the attitude of the current possibilities of investment in the purchase of durable goods for the household), the deterioration in September on a monthly basis reflecting decrease in consumer sentiment, which may be partly conditioned by the decrease in seasonal employment. However, the drop in consumer sentiment on a yearly basis, which reflects the impairment could not be attributed to seasonality, but the possible negative effects that come from the labor market and the overall growth of pessimism.
On the other hand, the IIP (which reflects consumers’ expectations for the next 12 months in terms of the financial situation of the household and the overall economic situation in Croatia), reflecting a higher level of pessimistic expectations that could be a consequence of the perceived economic downturns, while worsening PPI index (which contains and additional assessment of the number of unemployed in the next 12 months and evaluate the feasibility of personal savings) probably reflects the continued uncertainty in the labor market.
Long-term recession with little prospect of recovery implies continued adverse trends in the labor market and consequently not surprising relatively high level of pessimism among consumers.
Source: limun.hr